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The numbers that never show up (and what actually keeps drawing).

We pulled 2.4 million draws across 11 lotteries and asked a boring question: are any numbers "due"? The answer is more interesting than either side of the debate admits.

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Adrian Lowe Data Editor 14 min read Apr 16, 2026
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Every lottery player has heard the phrase “that number is due.” It’s the kind of belief that survives because it feels like common sense and dies the moment you look at the numbers. So we looked at the numbers — all 2.4 million of them — and the picture is a little messier than the textbook answer.

The null hypothesis is almost right

Across 30+ years of Powerball, Saturday Lotto, OZ Lotto, and eight smaller draws, every number’s observed frequency falls within the expected range for a fair random process. If you’re looking for proof that some numbers are “cold,” you won’t find it here.

“Due” is a feeling, not a statistic. The ball doesn’t remember the last draw.

Observed vs expected frequency · Powerball 1–35520 recent draws
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But the human side is weirder

Here’s the interesting part: when you look at ticket purchases instead of draws, players wildly over-pick certain numbers. Dates of birth cluster 1–31. Lucky sevens pile up. Sequences like 1-2-3-4-5-6 are bought tens of thousands of times every week.

This means the numbers that “never show up” in winners’ tickets aren’t rare — they’re just numbers people don’t pick. And when they do win, the prize is split less often.

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of Powerball tickets include at least one number between 1 and 12 — a birthday bias that quietly shrinks your expected payout.

So what do we actually recommend?

Nothing mystical. If you play, pick higher numbers — not because they’re “hot,” but because they share the pot less. See the full methodology or run the numbers yourself on our Smart Pick tool.

Statistics Powerball Methodology Statistics
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Adrian Lowe
Data Editor

Adrian leads SmartLotto's research desk. Former economics reporter, 10 years writing about probability, statistics, and why humans are bad at both.

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